The Wales Firebreak

The Wales Firebreak that came into effect on 23rd October attracted a great deal of media attention last week, with photographs of cordoned off ‘non-essential’ aisles a regular feature. But has the Wales Firebreak worked in terms of reducing activity?

4th November 2020 • GeoData

The answer appears to be a resounding ‘Yes’. The regional week-on-week drop we saw in our Retail Recovery Index was the biggest regional drop since the initial national Lockdown in March. Activity levels in city centres and town centres were down to the levels of late March.

Cardiff City Centre has dropped to just 10% of its baseline level. Swansea, Newport, Cwmbran and Wrexham have also reverted to their late March / early April lockdown lows.

That story is repeated across the towns, villages, urban centres and parades across Wales. 95% of the 280 Retail Places we measure in Wales showed week on week declines.

Retail Place	Type	Local Authority District	% Change Last Week
Cowbridge	Town Centre	The Vale of Glamorgan	-60.2%
Denbigh	Town Centre	Denbighshire	-54.7%
Barmouth	Town Centre	Gwynedd	-52.1%
St Davids	Town Centre	Pembrokeshire	-47.1%
Rhayader	Village Centre	Powys	-46.5%
Knighton	Town Centre	Powys	-42.6%
Prestatyn	Town Centre	Denbighshire	-41.9%
Llangefni	Town Centre	Isle of Anglesey	-40.6%
Blaneau	Town Centre	Blaenau Gwent	-40.6%
Abersoch	Town Centre	Gwynedd	-39.5%
Tonypandy	Town Centre	Rhondda Cynon Taf	-38.1%
Raglan	Village Centre	Monmouthshire	-38.1%
Ebbw Vale	Town Centre	Blaenau Gwent	-35.9%
Aberdare	Town Centre	Rhondda Cynon Taf	-35.9%
Blackwood	Town Centre	Caerphilly	-35.4%
Tenby	Town Centre	Pembrokeshire	-34.3%
Pontyclun	Town Centre	Rhondda Cynon Taf	-32.9%
Talbot Green	Town Centre	Rhondda Cynon Taf	-32.7%
Mold	Town Centre	Flintshire	-31.9%

The early experience of Wales gives some sense of what we might expect from the England Lockdown. It will also provide a clear comparison point as we seek to understand whether the different approaches have different effects; most importantly on the ability to contain infections, but also on the vitality of the retail sector as we move into the Christmas run-up.

Ben Purple, Director at GEOLYTIX